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Independent,* PREDICTIVE Analysis and Commentary, among the very best in the business.

Unlike the talking heads on TV, we don't just "explain" what has already happened. We're stock-pickers and market timers and we tell you what our research suggests is about to happen in the markets, and exactly how we think you should trade it!

What's more, we explain why we think what we do, so that you can learn and grow as an investor.

For over sixteen years, thousands of traders, both professional and non-professional, have depended upon us for unique and always-independent analysis and predictions that are often uncannily accurate. There are never any illiquid stocks, penny stocks, pink sheet stocks, or any other kind of pump-and-dump scammy, paid-for advice and ratings. Just clear, independent analysis of the markets and of carefully selected and emminently tradable stocks and funds.

We could list dozens of examples of our successes, but you would suspect that these just might be "cherry picked," to show only the successful calls and to ignore perhaps much more common dead-wrong calls. We applaud your scepticism and urge to you always be on guard against this kind of sleazy promotion. So instead of lists of correct past calls, we offer you a free trial, so you can see how well we do in REAL TIME, and judge for yourself.

What could be more professional, transparent, and fair than that? We ask only that you partake of just ONE free trial. We want you to be fair to us, too, okay?

Our Weekly Edition consists of two or three pages of market and industry analysis and predictions for the coming period, along with one to three Company Profiles of stocks that we particularly like as ways to trade that week's predictions. It also contains our Timing Model, a quant-based, trend-following model that suggests an appropriate investment level in growth stocks for an aggressive investor in the current period, from 100% short to 200% long.

Subscribers also get access to our once-weekly online webinar "chat" sessions with our Senior Editor and Analyst, Kenneth Reid, Ph.D., who shares his charts and analysis of dozens of markets and stocks, including whatever you ask about!

The Weekly Edition of The Spear Report is usually published on Friday afternoon, well before the close of the market.

Our Daily Professional Edition is published almost every market day well before the open and contains both market commentary and specific trading advice for the day, with a Model Portfolio.

 

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Latest Articles

03.23.12
Six Month Performance of Profiled Stocks

 

Those of us who invest set aside a little time every month (or week, or quarter or year) to check the performance of our holdings and perhaps make adjustments.  Well with the beginning of a new season and soon a new quarter, we at The Spear Report have decided to take a look back at the companies we have profiled over the last six months. 

Over the last 26 weeks our profiled stocks have seen an average weekly gain of 0.71% and an average overall gain of 12.5%.  Now remember, those are just averages.  Your performance could have been significantly better (or worse).

09.21.11
Slo' Mo'

Equity markets worldwide are being held hostage to the slow motion financial crisis unfolding in Europe. Like a good soap opera, the situation is exquisitely ambiguous, which makes for great drama. Hollywood could not have scripted it better.

On the one hand, we have resolute politicians defending the status quo with rhetorical bravado. Then there are the scared bond holders and other skeptical investors who provide the actual day to day liquidity that makes the system run. The plot thickens when they need each other, but don't trust each other.

This week German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Sarkozy reaffirmed their commitment to the Greek bailout while Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed Chairman Bernanke were busy behind the scenes helping the ECB prepare for an imminent liquidity emergency. Yesterday, these folks played a key card.

09.14.11
True Confessions

We have a confession to make. It is irksome to us that certain permanently paranoid pundits seem to be gloating over the market's misfortune and, like a broken clock, are taking credit for being 'right' after two years of perfectly wrong timing. The litany of bad news from all quarters, however, seems to justify their gloomy attitude.

This week got off to a rocky start when the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, announced that it is suing Deutsche Bank and sixteen other major U.S. and European banks for misrepresenting the quality of $196 billion in mortgages they sold to the GSE's during the housing bubble. This news came at a bad time for an increasingly fragile Europe.

Greece, for example, is priced for default. Greek 1-year bonds now yield north of 80%; the cost of protecting against default on bonds issued by 25 major European banks and insurers has risen to the highest level ever (~2.8%) and interbank lending in Europe is virtually non-existent, reflecting a dearth of counterparty confidence. Meanwhile, the ECB is holding interest rates steady at 1.5% and this week offered no indication it would adopt a more accommodative policy response.

Here in the U.S. we learned that jobs growth disappeared in August, consumer confidence is at the worst level since April 2009 and mortgage applications have fallen to their lowest level since 1996 because no one wants to buy an expensive asset that is only likely to get cheaper over time. Meanwhile, the Fed is probably out of large caliber ammunition and the administration in Washington will have a hard time passing an aggressive stimulus program given the partisan political atmosphere.

09.07.11
Twice Shy

Welcome to September, traditionally the worst month of the year for the stock market. Could the volatility really get any worse?
August was a heck of a rollercoaster ride, for which many individual investors lacked a safety bar or hand hold. From the July 21 peak to the August 9 trough, the Dow Jones Industrials fell 2147 points. The 10.9% plunge during the first six trading days of August was the worst six-day period since November 2008, when we had to endure a 14.3% death drop.
The good news is that the market is not only mean, but mean-reverting, so after retesting the early August low, the major indices rallied for two weeks, recouping 1100 Dow points or about half the losses. Such 50% retracements are normal in both up-trends and down-trends, however, so the rebound does not prove anything. The news today from the Labor Department that the economy produced no net new jobs is certainly disconcerting and has pushed indices down 2%.
The volatility naturally leads us to wonder whether the huge rally from the March 2009 has finally petered out. Is this as good as it gets? When does a Wall of Worry become something more oppressive? We do not yet know if we have put in a final low for the summer, but as the Volatility Index is still elevated (in the 30s), emotionality remains a problem. According to one seasoned observer, it is a bigger problem than ever before.

John Paulsen of Wells Capital Management thinks investors are suffering from "Apocalyptic Hypochondria."
Of course, once bitten, twice shy. The painful drama of 2008-2009 will be etched in the brains of most individual investors and fund managers for many years to come. We point out Five Overlooked Positives that might serve to mitigate such an ailment. 

08.31.11
Finding a Floor

Last week the sky was falling. This week the market is feeling for a floor. A timely buy of banking shares by Warren Buffett and dovish words from the Fed Chairman are boosting market spirits. Although tensions are increasing in the European banking system, there seems to be a growing acceptance that a semi-stagnant, muddle-through economy might not be so bad after all. That said, day to day trading conditions in the equity market have not yet normalized, so be careful out there.

What a difference a week makes. Last Friday the sky was falling; a week later the major indices managed to put in three back-to-back up days this week. Markets have extended periods when they do not call attention to themselves. Once or twice a year, however, things get dicey. Unfortunately, a high degree of drama (fear) is necessary to hammer out a bottom.

We do not yet know if we have put in a final low for this episode of Investor Panic, but the Volatility Index remains elevated in the mid-30s, which means the equity patient still has a fever. We need the temperature of the VIX to drop into the mid-20s before the market can be discharged from Intensive Care.

08.23.11
The Sky is Falling

As volatility comes back into the market, we have once again approached the extreme level of fear seen last week and last summer. Risk appetite has evaporated, so investors are fleeing to bonds. People are terrified that they will be ambushed once again by a dislocation in the financial sector, this time with the epicenter in Europe. Concerns about a double dip in the U.S. and the eurozone are exacerbating the negative mood. Objectively, however, nothing really bad has happened yet.

Apart from the crisis mentality, there is a backdrop of economic stress in the developed economies that should be factored in to your investing decisions. One metric for it is called the Misery Index, based on unemployment and inflation. Crises pass, but misery may last. Consequently, we recommend investing in other less miserable parts of the world. AmBev (ABV) is a large-cap Brazilian-based beverage powerhouse whose stock is near all-time highs, even as the Brazilian Bovespa is sinking.

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*A note on our "Independence":

We work for you - period! Neither the publisher nor the editors of any Spear publication have any financial or personal relationship of any kind with any of the companies or funds we review and no compensation of any kind is accepted for these reviews. Officers and employees of our companies are subject to strict rules and procedures to prevent conflicts of interest with our readers.